“Two in five Britons (41%) thought this when we last asked on 5 January this year, compared to a third (33%) who thought U-turns were a positive sign.”
Starmer, his ministers and Labour MPs had fiercely defended plans for digital ID. In an interview with Big Issue in October, Starmer said it could be a “passport” out of homelessness, allowing people to access documents necessary to get work and use services.
As leader of the opposition, Starmer gained a reputation for his willingness to abandon pledges. But in office these changes of direction have often come after the policy has inflicted political damage. Starmer’s climbdown over welfare reforms came after Labour MPs were suspended from the party for voting against the whip to oppose the plans.
James Crouch, head of public affairs research at Opinium, told Big Issue there has been a “damaging pattern” of U-turning once the damage is done, and those polled saw the government as out of touch.
“The real danger is something deeper: a growing sense that the government is both out of touch and directionless. As the U-turns have piled up, Labour has taken heavy hits on having ‘a clear sense of purpose’ and on ‘knowing what it stands for’. This has undermined not just confidence, but credibility,” said Crouch.
“This has helped to push Keir Starmer’s own approval ratings down to net -46, equal with Theresa’s May rock-bottom low in May 2019.”
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Opinium’s polling shows that Labour’s ratings for having a clear sense of purpose and knowing what it stands for have fallen from +6 and +4 pre-election, to -29 and -33 by December 2025.
U-turns are not necessarily bad in and of themselves, said Philip Cowley, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. They can show leaders willing to listen, and are less bad than going ahead with unpopular policies. But a steady stream of them can damage the ability to govern.
“Once MPs realise that Number 10 will buckle under pressure, then they put the pressure on,” Cowley said.
“MPs don’t mind defending things that are unpopular, if they can justify them, but why get grief from your constituents over a policy, if Number 10 are just going to reverse it anyway?”
As the government heads towards a crunch set of May elections, the digital ID U-turn could cement a growing impression, said Peter Allen, professor of politics at the University of Bath.
“To the extent that most voters are paying any attention, it will probably confirm what they already think about Starmer and his government: that it lacks direction and hasn’t yet delivered in the way that many Labour voters hoped for when they cast their ballot in July 2024,” Allen said.
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Look deeper, and it reflects something fundamental about the way Starmer runs the country, added David Moon, head of politics at the University of Bath.
“The ID cards U-turn is symptomatic of a leadership driven by the news cycle rather than any long-term vision, chasing an electorate that polling suggests barely exists. The policy’s revival reflected a residual Blairite instinct in Starmer’s team, while exposing the absence of an ideological project such as the one that gave coherence to Blair’s agenda,” said Moon.
“Starmer’s only consolation may be that, despite names being thrown around, his rivals within the parliamentary Labour Party similarly seem to lack clear and coherent visions that could replace his lack of one.”
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