What could be in chancellor John Healey's autumn budget and what could it mean for you?

The chancellor’s budget has a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. It’s the government’s opportunity to unveil its big plan for the future of the economy, such as changes to tax and public spending.

It can make a big difference to our bank accounts and standard of living.

John Healey is preparing to deliver his autumn statement on 28 October, his first budget as chancellor and the first under prime minister Andy Burnham’s new government. There could be big announcements made and it will solidify the government’s approach to the country’s finances.

You might remember varying levels of success and disasters at the budgets in recent years. Liz Truss’ mini-budget of 2022, delivered by then-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, triggered severe financial market turmoil, a plunge in the pound, and a political crisis that ended Truss’ 49-day stint as prime minister.

Rachel Reeves’ first public statement on state spending soon after she became chancellor (which wasn’t an official budget) saw the former chancellor announce winter fuel payment cuts, a decision which haunted Keir Starmer’s government for two years and plummeted its popularity.

No pressure on the new chancellor, then. His announcement could have a serious impact on our bank accounts – and also determine Labour’s place in the polls. It’s often hard to get past first impressions.

In a speech on 7 September, Healey said: “While Britain’s growth trajectory has been weak, this now must change. This is essential. It is possible. It is central to my purpose as chancellor.

“Ask an economist what growth is and you’ll get a number. But ask the country and you’ll get a different answer. A young person getting a new job in a company that’s on the up. A sole trader winning a new contract that pays for a holiday with their kids. A business winning a new export order, giving the community around it a new lease of life.

“And I dedicate myself to this mission as chancellor to make Great Britain, Growth Britain again, with more investment, more innovation and more jobs.”

There were echoes of Reeves in the speech as Healey talked about “growth Britain”. He acknowledged Starmer and Reeves and said he would build on their work to restore Britain’s fiscal discipline, an indication that he doesn’t want to shake the financial markets.

Yet exactly what he plans to announce in the budget is still guesswork.

Healey responded to queries around his plans by saying: “If I respond to speculation now, that will only fuel more speculation. And it’s quite right, and every chancellor would say, that’s for the budget. I’ll set out my plans and the future route for government for this country at that budget.”

Still, just for fun, let’s do a bit of speculating. Here’s what we could see in the chancellor’s autumn statement and what it might mean for you.

What cost of living measures could the chancellor announce in the autumn budget?

Addressing the cost of living is at the top of the agenda for Burnham’s government, the prime minister has promised.

Since becoming prime minister, he has announced a series of small measures to give people “breathing space”. These include promising to fix subscriptions, removing VAT from electricity bills which will save households an average of £3.75 each month, and capping single bus fares.

In a recent statement to the House of Commons, Burnham said: “Britain is not where any of us would wish it to be. Things are not working as they should. Life is too expensive and too hard for too many. This is why this government’s first moves were to give businesses and people a little breathing space.

“On tax, in my first week in office, we cut VAT on electricity bills and cut business rates for pubs, social clubs, and live music venues. We reinstated the two-pound cap on bus fares for the whole of 2027.

“These measures will provide some relief. They were funded by reprioritising within government as the bedrock of our approach will be grounded in fiscal responsibility. But in the long term, lifting growth and living standards will require much more.”

It is likely that Healey’s autumn budget will see the government reinforce its commitment to helping people with the cost of living.

Burnham has also committed to bringing more essential services like transport and water into public ownership as part of a 10-year plan for growth.

The government has also promised to rebuild the “resilience in our communities” and “re-industrialise our regions”. It may well be that the chancellor’s budget brings us a step closer to these goals.

Read more:

• What are Andy Burnham’s cost of living plans and what will they mean for you?
• Andy Burnham to donate 15% of PM’s salary to homelessness fight: ‘I want to lead from the front’
• London’s walk-in homelessness services are closing. It’s driving homeless people to hospital instead

What might the chancellor announce about housing in the autumn budget?

Burnham has promised to offer all people rough sleeping in England a route off the streets by Christmas, and the autumn budget should see the government solidify plans to achieve this ambition. A total of £442m has been put towards that goal with just over £100m in fresh investment.

It has already announced nearly £10bn of the £39 billion social and affordable homes programme has been allocated. This will deliver 70,000 homes, prioritising the most affordable and in-demand social rent homes.

But that’s not enough to house people who are facing homelessness and living in temporary accommodation. Shelter has calculated that 90,000 social rent homes are needed each year to address social housing waiting lists of 1.3 million households.

The government is also under pressure from charities and renters’ unions to unfreeze local housing allowance, which sets the maximum amount of housing benefit that private renters can claim.

Years of freezes by successive governments mean only 2.7% of homes in Britain would be affordable for people relying on housing benefit to move into today, according to Crisis.

Rates have been frozen since 2024 – the Conservatives were the last party to raise them. Labour has opted to keep LHA rates frozen since coming to power.

It remains to be seen whether Burnham decides at next month’s budget to unfreeze rates in the spring.

In an exclusive Big Issue interview, the prime minister was asked about plans for local housing allowance and he said: “We’ve got a budget coming up and we’ll have to look at those things there. Things are tight, as everybody can see, but I’m signalling very clearly here ahead of the autumn and winter period: this is our commitment in terms of rough sleeping and it’s hopefully something that people will get behind.

“One thing I would say is I don’t think the government money alone sorts this and I am saying let’s see if we can add more to it because the amazing efforts of homelessness organisations across the country. Let’s see if we can add some extra on top of this and turn it into something real.”

The Conservatives have pledged to cut local housing allowance rates to cover just 10% of private rented homes in a local area in a bid to save £4bn as part of a proposed £10bn package to fund increased defence spending.

“I do not think that taking £4 billion out of housing benefit is going to get the right consensus around this issue. That would create levels of homelessness in this country that we would not have seen before, with hundreds of thousands of children in temporary accommodation,” said Burnham.

“I say that, yes, we do everything to support our national security, but it cannot come at the expense of social security.”

Burnham revealed in his Big Issue interview that he will donate 15% of his prime minister’s salary to homelessness causes.

Could there be tax rises in the autumn budget?

Healey has not confirmed details about plans for tax changes in the autumn budget.

Questioned about tax by journalists after his speech on 7 September, the chancellor said: “On tax specifics, I’m the chancellor less than two months out from the budget, I’m not going to speculate on questions of tax.”

However, he added that Labour made “very strong, very clear, very specific” commitments on tax in its 2024 manifesto and that the current government will stick to those.

In its manifesto, Labour promised it would not increase national insurance, the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax or VAT for working people.

However, there could still be targeted tax rises or adjustments, for example focused on wealth, assets or property.

In the 2025 budget, the government announced it would introduce a new charge on owners of residential properties in England worth £2 million or more from April 2028. This has been called a ‘mansion tax’.

A consultation into this plan concluded in July and the results are yet to be published.

What could the government announce about employment in the autumn budget?

The government is under pressure to boost employment support, particularly for young people.

Almost one million people aged 16 to 24 are not in employment, education or training (NEET), a “crisis” which will cause harm to individual lives and could also cause significant damage to the economy in the long-term.

Former health minister Alan Milburn has been commissioned by the government to review youth unemployment and is expected to deliver his final recommendations in the autumn.

It is likely that the budget will reiterate the government’s commitment to tackling youth unemployment as a priority.

What changes could be announced about the benefits system in the autumn budget?

Previous budgets have seen the government announce plans to slash welfare spending to save the country money.

Cuts to the winter fuel payment was not the only controversial welfare proposal made by former chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The Labour government also came under significant backlash for its plans for disability benefit cuts, and it was forced to pause changes to personal independence payment (PIP) last year.

Starmer promised that there would be no further changes to PIP until a review of the assessment process has concluded, led by disability minister Stephen Timms. This is expected to conclude in November 2026, so it is unlikely any changes to disability benefits will be announced in the autumn budget.

Burnham has said previously “we’ve got to get really serious as a country” at bringing the welfare bill down.

However, the new prime minister has also said that there will not be welfare cuts in the autumn budget.

He said that “the biggest council home building programme since the post-war period is the Labour way to get the welfare bill down”. Burnham’s proposel is that investment in social homes will keep housing costs lower and recycle public funds back into local authorities rather than payinh billions in housing benefit into the pockets of private landlords.

Labour has also pledged to increase employment support with the Get Britain Working initiative, announced under Starmer, a £3.5 billion employment and health support package which will see Jobcentres overhauled and targeted support for young people and those with health conditions.

With more people supported into work, fewer people will be reliant on benefits to survive, ministers hope.

Do you have a story to tell or opinions to share about this? Get in touch and tell us more. 

Change a vendor’s life.

Buy from your local Big Issue vendor every week – and always take the magazine. It’s how vendors earn with dignity and move forward.

You can also support online:
Subscribe to the magazine or support our work with a monthly gift. Your support helps vendors earn, learn and thrive while strengthening our frontline services.

Thank you for standing with Big Issue vendors.