So why are they so persistent – and who is behind them? Let’s dive into the real detail.
What is the ‘millionaire exodus’ myth?
The “millionaire exodus” narrative rears its head around major fiscal events. Last month, when Rachel Reeves trailed modest tax changes on income and wealth, there were a flurry of press releases warning of capital flight.
“Tax is the central catalyst behind silent migration,” warned Nigel Green from deVere Group, a financial advice firm, in a bulletin on “high-net-worth mobility”.
Tideway Wealth released a survey purportedly showing migration flows out of the UK, with founder James Baxter saying that the “astonishing result… reflects what we are seeing when talking to clients and prospects, especially in the higher earner category.”
It is true that some wealthy individuals leave the UK. Steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal and shipping magnate John Fredriksen have recently moved to Dubai, citing Labour’s tax reforms. In August, former Manchester United footballer Rio Ferdinand announced his departure, questioning “where our tax is going”. Scroll through TikTok and you may encounter a polo-shirted millionaire strolling through the UAE sun, explaining that he has escaped Labour’s “tax hell”.
But there is no evidence that this is happening on a broader scale.
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Henley & Partners, a wealth management firm who market “golden passports” and residence visas, release figures they claim show an ‘exodus’. According to their calculations, some 9,500 high-net-worth individuals left Britain in 2024. That sounds dramatic but represents roughly 0.3% of the UK’s millionaire population. Their forecasts for this year – some 16,500 – still amount to well under 1%.
The figures are typically framed as a rejection of Britain’s tax regime: “This reflects a deepening perception among the wealthy that greater opportunity, freedom, and stability lie elsewhere,” said Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO at Henley & Partners, in June.
“The long-term implications for Europe and the UK’s economic competitiveness and investment appeal are significant.”
But proportionally, the numbers remain tiny, far smaller than the term “exodus” implies – and even these numbers cannot be relied upon. Henley’s partner, New World Wealth, tracks a narrow group of extremely wealthy individuals – centi-millionaires and billionaires – by analysing changes in work location on platforms like LinkedIn. This excludes most UK millionaires, most of whom have net assets under £2 million and are far less mobile.
In one BBC More or Less investigation, the entire UK “exodus” projection was found to rest on around 50 observed profile changes, scaled up to thousands.
Second, Henley’s characterisation of its own figures has repeatedly shifted.
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“In 2021, Henley described 2,000 millionaires leaving the UK as ‘insignificant’ but in 2023 described 1,600 millionaires leaving the UK an ‘exodus’,” a Tax Justice Network report found.
The same scale of movement is alternately dismissed or dramatised. But most millionaires actually back taxes. According to a recent poll, some 85% would support a tax of 2% on assets over £10m to help fund public services.
Who is really leaving the UK?
Some people are contemplating upping sticks. But they are not, by and large, millionaires.
The YouGov poll commissioned by Tideway Wealth after the autumn budget found that just over one in 10 UK adults are planning to move abroad, with 4% aiming to leave within five years. Tideway linked this to the millionaire exodus narrative, with founder James Baxter saying the “astonishing result… reflects what we are seeing when talking to clients and prospects, especially in the higher earner category.”
But look more closely and a different picture emerges. The polling breaks respondents into the broad social grades ABC1 and C2DE — shorthand for middle/upper and working-class groups. 3% of working-class respondents said they were considering leaving the UK, compared with 4% of middle and upper-class respondents.
These categories are both porous and blunt. According to YouGov, ABC1 covers 57% of the population, yet barely half of those people identify as middle class at all. As YouGov itself has noted, “NRS grade does not line up very well with people’s own class identity.”
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In short, the data tells us little about millionaire wealth migration. Nonetheless, the fact the potential departure of skilled workers is troubling.
“What should truly concern us is when young people and skilled professionals say they want to emigrate – like the 30% of NHS doctors who said they were thinking about leaving this year. This is the real crisis,” said Davies.
Caitlin Boswell, head of advocacy and policy at Tax Justice UK, echoed this.
“Sky-high living costs, a deepening housing crisis, unaffordable childcare, failing public services and poor work-life balance are the real reasons people are considering leaving the UK,” she said.
“These issues require structural changes that transform the British economy to benefit everyone.”
Migration scares have dominated British headlines in recent times. For years, they have fixated on desperate people crossing the Channel in small boats.
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More recently, the anxiety has expanded to include wealthy individuals supposedly fleeing the United Kingdom. But as with the small-boats narrative, the spin doesn’t always reflect reality.
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